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3. Foresight Or Just Luck


3. Foresight Or Just Luck

Though Curry played well early on in his career, he didn't resemble the MVP candidate he is today. Additionally, there were concerns about recurring ankle injuries that limited Curry to just 26 games in 2011-12. The Warriors and Curry agreed to a four-year, $44 million contract in 2012, locking their star player into a hugely team-friendly deal, though few knew it at the time.

As she clicked through the news on her phone and surveyed the medical staff and journalists surrounding her that morning, she was just figuring out that she was, in fact, making history. She was the first COVID-19 vaccine trial subject.

There had been two other novel coronaviruses since 2003, although neither SARS nor MERS were terribly contagious and neither became pandemics. In early January, there was no reason to assume COVID-19 would be any different. Yet Graham already had his team diving into how to defeat the new coronavirus just to prove it could be done. Fauci was sold.

Graham began texting, emailing and calling a handful of close associates. He reached one, a former NIH scientist now at the University of Texas, Jason McLellan, just back from a Utah ski trip. Another was a rising star he had known since she was a teenager, when she applied for an internship. Kizzmekia Corbett had been working in Graham's lab since 2014, studying the best way to defeat coronaviruses with a vaccine.

Haller put it out of her mind until two days later, when her phone rang just as she sat down in a restaurant with a friend. She almost never answers calls from strangers. This time she did, and it was someone from Kaiser asking if she had 20 minutes to spare. She excused herself from the table to answer questions about her health history and whether she could make all the appointments.

When she walked into the downtown office, she still had little clue how much attention she was about to get. After the shot, she was asked to wait a couple of hours just in case there were any reactions. She felt fine.

Foresight is the secret ingredient of success, because without foresight we cannot prepare for the future. Effective foresight has always been important in human life, but it is now much harder to come by, because our modern world is changing faster than ever before. Our technologies, jobs, institutions, even some of our treasured values and ways of thinking are all shifting radically, making it very difficult to plan ahead and prepare for future challenges and opportunities. Indeed, in our age of hyper-change, many people have no notion of what sort of world they should prepare for. They may decide, fatalistically, that they cannot know or do anything about their own futures.

Education is another area where foresight is important. Students lacking foresight are more likely to neglect their studies because they see no connection between education and a successful future. But students with good foresight skills can recognize the importance of studying and can also select the courses most likely to help them meet their goals. Young people who do not learn to think ahead may find it difficult to plan for a successful marriage and family life. People whose foresight is weak are likely to have difficulty saving money for emergencies, down payments on homes, and retirement.

People in business can use foresight to identify new products and services, as well as markets for those products and services. An increase in minority populations in a neighborhood would prompt a grocer with foresight to stock more foods linked to ethnic tastes. An art museum director with foresight might follow trends in computer graphics to make exhibits more appealing to younger visitors.

Even at the community level, foresight is critical: School officials, for example, need foresight to assess numbers of students to accommodate, numbers of teachers to hire, new educational technologies to deploy, and new skills for students (and their teachers) to develop over the comin


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